Comments on: FALSE PROPHET – NOSTRADAMUS AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS http://quixoticfinance.com/false-prophet-nostradamus-and-the-financial-crisis/ To protect our windmills against Don Quixote and his Knights of the Holy Black Swan Sun, 25 May 2014 17:12:31 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.3.1 By: John Vos http://quixoticfinance.com/false-prophet-nostradamus-and-the-financial-crisis/#comment-443 Wed, 12 Jun 2013 21:23:47 +0000 http://quixoticfinance.com/?p=213#comment-443 Peter, the point is not that Taleb didn’t say when exactly Fannie Mae would default. The point is that he made a vague general statement (“they are sitting on a barrel of dynamite”), and shoehorned it to a precise event after the facts. It may sound like a precise statement to some (because he specifically named Fannie Mae, and they did blow up). But if he really had such an uncanny awareness of the dangers lurking in the financial system, why didn’t he mention Freddie Mac – which was in exactly the same troublesome situation? Why didn’t he mention the bubble in housing prices (before it burst, I mean), or the lax lending standards in the subprime segment? I’ve shown why: the only reason he mentions Fannie Mae is because a report of Fannie Mae’s risks was offered to him on a silver platter. You may still call that a prediction, but it certainly isn’t his. Furthermore, the problems he pointed out (or rather, the report did) were about interest rate risk. What caused Fannie Mae’s downfall wasn’t an interest rate hike, but defaults on mortgage payments. He took someone else’s “prediction”, added some further explanations of his own (“they are using bogus models”) but got all the details wrong, yet still claims he made a prediction no one else, or very few others made. To be sure, there had been circulating plenty of analyses and warnings much more detailed (and correct) than his. That’s not something to be proud of, and not something to admire.

]]> By: Peter The Greatest http://quixoticfinance.com/false-prophet-nostradamus-and-the-financial-crisis/#comment-438 Tue, 11 Jun 2013 22:01:02 +0000 http://quixoticfinance.com/?p=213#comment-438 I don’t agree with the title ”FALSE PROPHET – NOSTRADAMUS AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS”… If somebody predicts something whenever in the future, that is to be appreciated and respected already but just because he didn’t said the precise dates and seconds.. is not normal to call him FALSE PROPHET .. that’s way to exaggerated.

]]> By: John Vos http://quixoticfinance.com/false-prophet-nostradamus-and-the-financial-crisis/#comment-395 Wed, 15 May 2013 17:55:47 +0000 http://quixoticfinance.com/?p=213#comment-395 Nice picture Chuck, thanks!

]]> By: Crocodile Chuck http://quixoticfinance.com/false-prophet-nostradamus-and-the-financial-crisis/#comment-393 Wed, 15 May 2013 02:28:09 +0000 http://quixoticfinance.com/?p=213#comment-393 Not even ‘black swans’ are ALL black-their contour feathers (that lie nearer the body and provide streamlining, insulation, waterproofing) are white
http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7213/7228326818_526fb377a0_z.jpg

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